P&H’s Western Weekly Recap: June 10-14, 2024

June 10, 2024 | Western Canada

Wheat

-Minneapolis July futures were down almost 44 cents and closed at 694’4 on the week. Since the recent highs reached back on May 28, wheat futures are down over 73 cent US per bushel while cash prices have taken a hit somewhere to the tune of $1/bu.

-US Crop progress report will be out this afternoon, last week it showed the winter wheat crop condition ratings in the good to excellent category were up 1%, now at 49% (compared to 36% LY), 83% headed (+5% above avg), and harvest was 6% complete.

-Spring wheat was 94% planted (+4% above avg, ), with emergence at 78% (+9% above avg) and 74% rated as Good/Excellent (vs 64% LY).

-Australia’s 2024/25 wheat production should be bigger than last year after an increase in planted area, according to Rabobank. The country should harvest 27.4 MMT of wheat this year’s crop, up 5.7% from 2023/24 as planted area is set to rise by 2.4mln 33.3mln ac.

-Meanwhile ABARES (Australian Government) said the country would harvest 29.1MMT of wheat in the 2024/25 crop year (up 12% from 23/24 and 10% above the 10yr avg).

Black Sea

-Russia’s SovEcon reduced its Russian wheat production forecast by 1.4MMT, down to 80.7MMT this year as frosts in May and continued dry weather has pushed output ideas lower.

-Russian Deputy Prime Minister said frosts earlier this month destroyed crops on ~2.1mln ac of grains. Despite the damage, he maintained Russia’s 2024 grain production forecast of 132MMT, including 85MMT of wheat, though he said 2024/25 grain exports will likely fall to 60MMT (down from 70MMT).

-Russian wheat has set the trend when it comes to world wheat pricing over the past few years and after falling considerably (recall US$198/MT), we’ve seen prices stabilize and grind higher w/ new crop wheat now being offered closer to US$250/MT.

-Ukraine’s cumulative grains exports now total 47.4MMT for the marketing year to date, that’s up from 45.6MMT for the same period last year.

Canola/ Soybeans

-Canola futures were lower on the week, with the July contract down over $30/MT at the close on Friday afternoon. Bean oil and EU Rapeseed futures were both down > 4% on the week while palm oil was mostly flat.

-US weekly export sales came in at the low end of range estimates, but concerns linger around China’s lack of demand and there are still no new crop sales which is highly unusual for this time of year.

-Australia’s ABARES (Aussie version of USDA), pegged the country’s 2024/25 canola crop at 5.4MMT (vs 5.7MMT LY and 21% above the 10yr avg), down from earlier estimates of 6.1MMT.

-Producer soybean sales in Argentina were up 90% compared to April and totaled 5.33MMT for the month as drier conditions and improving international prices pushed farmers to advance sales.

Barley/ Corn

–Very little price movement in feed grains lately as there is still a decent amount still out there, especially barley.

–Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut 500,000 from US corn plantings, now down to 89.5mln ac due to moisture concerns in the western Corn Belt. He is now forecasting the US corn crop at 14.62 billion bu.

-StoneX cut its Brazilian second corn crop forecast by 3.9% from last month down to 93.5MMT due to dry weather with total corn production is now 121.75MMT, down from 125.6MMT previously.

Durum

-Durum conditions across the prairies are looking fantastic and we should start to see more updates on crop conditions in the weeks to come.

-Russia announced that they will not extend the ban on exports of durum wheat that recently ended back on May 31. Russian conditions are said to be a mixed bag but higher seeded acres and trend yields could produce 1.7-2.45MMT.

-Durum prices continue to trend lower as old crop demand fades and new crop conditions are starting off well above average. Year to date exports total 2.8MMT (vs 4.2MMT at this time last year) and final exports are on pace to reach about 3.2MMT.

Durum Regions of Russia:

Contact your local P&H for more info on this week’s grain markets.